At some point this century, some people believe the pace of technological progression in the areas of genetics, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence will become so fast that society, and even the human race itself, will undergo rapid evolution. Miracles like immortality, colonisation of the stars and an end to work will result from this and it may even be necessary to redefine what it means to be human.
This is called the Technological Singularity.
The term was originally coined in 1982 by US science fiction writer Vernor Vinge and has more recently been popularised by futurologist Ray Kurzweil, especially in his book The Singularity is Near which can be read for more information. There's now also a Singularity University in Silicon Valley which offers academic programs to understand and facilitate the coming of the event.
Exponential Growth
The possibility of the Technological Singularity happening this century is dependant on the laws of exponential growth. Moore's Law (named after the co-founder of Intel Gordon E Moore) is perhaps the most famous example of this and observes how computational power doubles every 18 months. This can be applied to other technological developments too and may mean as much progress may occur in the next seven years as in the last fourteen.
Kurzweil believes this may result in us achieving twenty thousand years of progress when measured against the achievements of the entire twentieth century.
Artificial Intelligence
The world's first AI with the intelligence of a human may quickly be able to improve and create better versions of itself, making it possible that the first AI supercomputer may be the last thing humans would ever need to invent.
The potential emergence of advanced artificial intelligence will be the most important result of exponential growth as this will eventually lead to machines inventing things far beyond what humans can and accelerate the world towards the Technological Singularity. The advancing processing power of supercomputers is key to the development of AI.
The fastest supercomputer today is the Cray Roadrunner in the USA which (according to official information from processor manufacturer AMD) can achieve 1.75 petaflops. Nick Bostrom, Ph.D (a Director at Oxford University) estimates the human brain operates at 100 petaflops but IBM is already planning to build a supercomputer with 20 petaflops of processing power by 2020AD and there are also forecasts of a zettaflop supercomputer (one million petaflops) by 2030AD.
According to the laws of exponential growth, a supercomputer equal to all the billions of people on the planet may therefore be achieved before 2060AD and with trillions of times the power before the end of this century. And each of these may be networked to hundreds or thousands more with equal power, making the reality of a Technological Singularity even more likely.
Genetics and Nanotechnology
Advances in genetics over the coming decades may be enough for many people alive today to extend their lives long enough to the time of the Technological Singularity when more rapid advances may allow for the reprogramming of the human body to eliminate diseases and imperfections and even increase life expectancy.
Nanotechnology is an emerging technology today with the aim of creating tiny self-replicating machines that can build or redesign almost anything molecule by molecule, atom by atom. The medical industry will be a key benefactor of this technology as trillions of these machines could be programmed to painlessly run through the human body and fix any imperfections.
Nanotechnology could also lead to the building of virtually anything from common substances for little or no cost, including food, electrical devices, cars, aircraft and even buildings and entire cities.
Humans 2.0 and 3.0
As the world approaches and then reaches the Technological Singularity, Kurzweil believes the human body could be upgraded to version 2.0 and 3.0 bodies. Human 2.0 may be a reality in the next 2-3 decades and will blend the biological with the non-biological to allow people to become closer to technology and better able to accept the superintelligence that AI supercomputers may achieve.
Better digestive systems, programmable blood to give increased energy, and brain implants to battle degenerative diseases like Parkinson's and provide wireless access to the Web may all be part of human 2.0. At the time of the Technological Singularity, human 3.0 bodies may become a reality and utilise nanotechnology to construct entirely perfect artificial bodies that could possess shape-shifting properties.
Redefining Reality and the Nature of Humanity
What defines virtual and actual reality may be blurred by the Technological Singularity and raise questions about what reality is and what it means to be a human. Advances from the Singularity may lead to the possibility to upload human minds into computers and transform people into non-biological entities that live out their entire lives within any virtual environment they choose. These environments will seem as real to them as the real world.
Evolved humans are often referred to as posthumans and transhumans and these 'people' could effectively live forever and create unlimited copies of themselves. They could return to the real world whenever they chose by using nanotechnology to fabricate a new body of any shape they desired. They would also possess almost limitless intelligence and result in there being no clear distinction between humans and machines.
At the same time as this, the real world will be augmented by advances in nanotechnology allowing for the customisation of environments similar to that possible in virtual reality.
When Will the Technological Singularity Happen?
Futurologist Ray Kurzweil believes that the Technological Singularity may occur close to the year 2050AD, although this is open to much debate.
Much of the hopes for reaching the Technological Singularity depend upon a breakthrough in artificial intelligence being achieved that will allow for the creation of far more advanced technology than can be realised today. But this breakthrough is by no means certain as AI research has not progressed as quickly as some other areas. Global natural disasters, wars or terrorist attacks may also impact on humanity's ability to achieve the Technological Singularity.
For further information on the topics in this article, Ray Kurzweil's thought-provoking book, The Singularity is Near, is recommended reading (Penguin, 2006).
Jason Glover - Jason Glover has worked in the marketing teams of major companies for over twenty years, including over ten years in online marketing ...
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